Is there space for a further Channel Tunnel operator at the Temple Mills depot off the HS1 line at Stratford? The issue rumbles on, with ORR expected to make a decision on the issue by this autumn according to The Times today.

But what if the extra capacity at the depot and workshop there were to be allocated to the incumbent, to Eurostar itself?

The argument goes like this: capacity at Temple Mills is limited, and will be allocated to the companies – likely only one more than the incumbent Eurostar – that are best placed to use that extra capacity. And who is best placed to provide more services through the Channel Tunnel? Well, Eurostar itself, you would think.

It was now more than a year ago – 15 May 2024 – that FT first reported that Eurostar Group was on the verge of signing a contract for 50 new trains. At the time of writing nothing has been signed. And since the UK sold its stake in Eurostar in 2015, and Eurostar merged with Thalys in 2022 (now altogether called Eurostar Group), the operational direction is clear: French state owned railway group SNCF owns 56% and calls the operational shots, and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and Federated Hermes Infrastructure that together own 25% simply want the group to make a profit.

And when SNCF calls the shots in high speed rail, that means ordering trains from French national champion Alstom. And Alstom’s Avelia Horizon – known in its SNCF version as TGV M – is a train that fits the bill, double deck (so big capacity and big profit) and 300km/h and built in France. That’s what Eurostar would order.

The most urgent task, short term, for Eurostar Group however is not through the Channel Tunnel (where the decade old Siemens built e320 trains are OK for now), but on the former Thalys routes Amsterdam-Bruxelles-Paris and Köln-Bruxelles-Paris. Here the PBA and PBKA trains are low capacity, and are getting long in the tooth, meaning reliability is dropping. So Eurostar Group would have a strong incentive to order new trains and deploy them on ex-Thalys lines and then eventually in the future through the Tunnel, with an eye on achieving a unified fleet and even being able to run UK to Switzerland or Germany that none of its fleet can do currently. And Eurostar CEO Cazenave keeps on repeating the target of 30 million passengers by 2030 – you are not going to get there without new trains.

Also bearing this in mind – the pressing need for new trains for ex-Thalys routes, and some questions about the longer term strategy – Eurostar could sign an order with options in it. Something in the region of 30-40 trains to replace the PBA and PBKA, with 10-15 more that could be ordered to replace e300 trains, and then into the 2030s an option for 20-30 more to replace the e320 trains. It need not be 50 trains or nothing.

So then, what is going on? Here are some plausible theories.

Eurostar’s finances are not solid enough to allow them to buy new trains
COVID hit Eurostar’s Channel Tunnel operations hard, but the rebound in passenger numbers has been strong. And many railway companies that are heavily indebted have not struggled to make new rolling stock acquisitions. Eurostar is also trying to reduce its workforce currently. However not investing – and with reliability then due to drop further and a door open to more competitors – would surely be a recipe for the financial situation worsening further?

Alstom delivery delays
The TGV-M for SNCF was meant to be running before the Paris Olympics in summer 2024, and now the talk is of “early 2026”, with no firm date still known. The on board batteries are one known problem, but there may be others. Does Eurostar know something others are being coy about in public?

Being at the back of the queue for orders
SNCF has 115 TGV-M on order, and Proxima (12 trains) and ONCF (18 trains) are ahead of Eurostar in the queue, and ONCF wants its trains before Morocco hosts the 2030 World Cup. Could Eurostar somehow muscle in and get its trains earlier? Alstom is conscious of the problem though, announcing a second Avelia Horizon production line in Valenciennes to speed up deliveries.

Problems with compatibility with the Channel Tunnel
Whatever trains Eurostar (or whatever private rival) orders will be 200m long trains, rather than the 400m units used currently, and two will be coupled together when needed. We know that this is generally considered to be OK for Channel Tunnel operations (more background on this here). We also know that there is nothing in principle preventing a double deck train being run through the Channel Tunnel, and the loading gauge allows it. The only possible headache could be adjusting the evacuation procedures for the Channel Tunnel to allow evacuation of passengers from the back set in a 2x 200m formation. And even if Eurostar would not deploy the new trains to London initially, would it order trains it knew might not ever be approved?

Eurostar complacency and management inefficiency
It is not as if the incumbent is a well run, lean operation. The hurdles its potential rivals face are even bigger than it faces, so can it afford to simply sit on its hands? Perhaps?

Those are the plausible reasons. Comments and insight below would be very welcome!