As I raced around Europe during my #CrossChannelRail project for the past three weeks, it looked like there were three or possibly four private companies in the frame to rival Eurostar on high speed routes through the Channel Tunnel – Virgin Trains, Gemini, Evolyn and possibly Heuro.

But today’s news – that Italian state owned operator Trenitalia is teaming up with Evolyn (owned by the Spanish Cosmen family – and they have deep pockets) – suddenly puts them at the very front of the queue to run services to rival Eurostar.

The headline commitment – London-Paris in 2029 – looks eminently doable. Trenitalia already has a large fleet of Hitachi Frecciarossa 1000 trains that have been running in France since 2021, and are equipped with the TVM-430 signalling system used on LGV Nord in France, the Channel Tunnel and HS1 in the UK. Hitachi is currently in the middle of delivering the latest tranche of 30 of these trains, and there is an option for 10 more. Evacuation and fire safety for the Channel Tunnel are likely to prove to be no major headache, as Italy already has among the strictest fire safety rules for its railways in Europe.

It is precisely this connection with Hitachi that puts Trenitalia ahead of any other possible Eurostar rival. It will have the trains it needs by 2029, while others are still searching around for finance. The press release announces a financial commitment from the company of up to €1 billion for this route expansion, and with a proven business model and operational competence, further loans are likely to be easier to obtain than for smaller, less experienced rivals.

Where Trenitalia says rather little is about routes. Lille and Ashford are mentioned, and especially the latter is a really clever call – as it has the largest terminal of all the interim stations on the core routes. Stopping there is the most obvious way to reduce pressure on St Pancras. Lyon and Marseille get a mention, but my own research work indicates that these stations are likely to not work for services to London are there are no secure platforms at stations in either city, nor obvious ways to build them, short term.

The intriguing additional prospect is London – Milano trains. With a trip time upwards of 8 hours, that is not going to be something that would be possible more than 1 or 2 times a day. But given Trenitalia has maintenance facilities in Milano that it could use in addition to the limited capacity at Temple Mills that ORR has indicated it could allocate to a Eurostar rival, running trains there could make operational sense. Given the absence of secure platforms in Torino Porta Susa and Milano Centrale that would mean a passport control stop somewhere on the route towards London – probably at Lille or possibly Marne la Vallée – Chessy – which for a predominantly tourist orientated service might be passable.

Overall though, I must admit I am surprised. I had expected Trenitalia would eye Amsterdam – Bruxelles – Paris as its next international expansion, and not the Channel Tunnel. Perhaps the financial clout of Evolyn and the Cosmen family prompted them to think differently.

Anyway, however you look at it, Trenitalia-Evolyn have now raced to the front of the queue to be the first rival to Eurostar. They, unlike anyone else so far, will actually have trains they can run.